From Words to Dates: Water into Wine, Mathemagic or Phylogenetic Inference?

Gray & Atkinson’s (2003) application of quantitative phylogenetic methods to Dyen, Kruskal & Black’s (1992) IndoEuropean database produced controversial divergence time estimates. Here we test the robustness of these results using an alternative data set of ancient Indo-European languages. We employ two very different stochastic models of lexical evolution – Gray & Atkinson’s (2003) finite-sites model and a stochastic-Dollo model of word evolution introduced by Nicholls & Gray (in press). Results of this analysis support the findings of Gray & Atkinson (2003). We also tested the ability of both methods to reconstruct phylogeny and divergence times accurately from synthetic data. The methods performed well under a range of scenarios, including widespread and localized borrowing.